backBilateral discussions to determine the future of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (“USMCA”) will commence mid-March ahead of the official joint review beginning July 1, 2026. Congressional engagement and stakeholder advocacy are increasing as the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (“USTR”) prepares for negotiations with officials from Mexico and Canada.
Background and Process
The USMCA, which replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement in 2020, eliminated many tariffs between the United States, Canada, and Mexico, and established uniform rules governing trade in goods and services, and investment across North America.
The USMCA requires that a joint review by all three parties occur every six years, and the first such review will begin on July 1, 2026 to determine if the parties wish to renew the agreement. There is no fixed end date by which the joint review must conclude.
If a party declines to renew, the agreement nonetheless will remain in force until its expiration in 2036—the end of its initial 16-year term. Notably, however, this lack of agreement would trigger annual joint reviews until the USMCA expires. These recurring annual reviews would provide additional opportunities for the parties to negotiate and achieve consensus. Thus, even if all parties do not agree to renew during the joint review, the USMCA will likely remain in force for another ten years. The USTR is required to consult with Congress regarding any recommended action for the joint review and whether the United States plans to extend the USMCA.
Separately, the USMCA also allows a party to withdraw from the agreement rather than simply decline to renew it. In the event of withdrawal, the USMCA would remain in force for six months from the notice of withdrawal. While President Trump has indicated that he believes he has the authority to trigger the withdrawal process, it seems clear that any such effort would likely trigger significant challenges in Congress and the Courts.
The Joint Review So Far
As part of the joint review process, the USTR solicited comments and held a three-day public hearing. In the USTR’s report to Congress in December 2025, Ambassador Jamieson Greer noted that stakeholders submitted more than 1,500 comments regarding a range of topics. He stated that the USMCA “has been successful to a degree” and has “broad support,” but “nearly all stakeholders advocate improvements.”
While President Trump has expressed ambivalence about the USMCA and its benefit to the United States, Congress has generally been more supportive. On February 12, 2026, at the U.S. Senate Finance Committee hearing, “The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement: Evaluating North American Competitiveness,” Republican Chairman Mike Crapo highlighted the Agreement’s bipartisan support and overall success. The Chair and members of the Committee also identified key areas for improvement including stronger enforcement of USMCA provisions.
Given general support for renewal with certain improvements from key stakeholders and members of Congress on both sides of the aisle, outright withdrawal is unlikely. Renewal without modification is equally unlikely. USTR will most likely seek to renegotiate on a bilateral basis, engaging separately with Mexico and Canada.
Next Steps
Canadian trade officials are preparing to visit Washington, D.C. to discuss the joint review; meanwhile, the first formal round of discussions with Mexican officials will begin the week of March 16. On March 5, 2026, USTR announced that negotiators from the United States and Mexico were instructed “to begin a scoping discussion on the necessary measures to ensure the benefits of the Agreement accrue primarily to the parties, including by reducing dependence on imports from outside the region, strengthening rules of origin, and enhancing the security of North American supply chains.”
Priority issues for the review will likely include:
- Revising the rules of origin necessary for key industrial products–such as automobiles and auto parts–to claim duty-free status under the USMCA to discourage outsourcing.
- Addressing agricultural practices that harm U.S. producers, such as Canada’s dairy policies and Mexico’s seasonal produce exports.
- Improving enforcement of existing labor and environmental rules.
- Reinforcing digital trade provisions to address artificial intelligence, cross-border data flows, and Canadian policies that harm U.S. media firms.
Key Takeaways
The upcoming joint review could have a significant impact on tariff levels and rules governing key supply chains, as well as implications beyond trade such as for energy, defense, and immigration policy. Clients should stay engaged in the joint review and monitor developments closely as the process unfolds.