backSecurity-transition paradox
The Paris Agreement marked a decisive shift in global climate governance, moving policy from incremental environmental measures towards a more systemic framework for decarbonisation and thrusting emissions reduction objectives into legislative agendas across the world. Over the past decade, international energy policy and regulation have reoriented accordingly, with large-scale investment in renewables and other low-carbon technologies positioning cleaner energy as an essential element of the system.
Recent events, however, have shown that this transition is not without challenges. Supply chain and infrastructure vulnerabilities, resource nationalism, sanctions and armed conflict have elevated energy security, affordability and sovereignty as primary policy imperatives. Reminders of the overriding need to keep the lights on, cheaply and securely, has led many governments to reorder their lists of priorities in favour of domestic production, the diversification of imports (both geographically and in terms of fuel types) and, most obviously, to extend the role of fossil fuels beyond what had been anticipated at the start of this decade.
At the same time, the AI-led growth in electricity demand is outpacing the ability of complex clean energy supply and grid capacity to evolve, testing the viability of existing generation and network plans. The time and public investment needed to integrate low‑carbon and renewable projects in the race to deploy AI competes with the idea of a rapid fossil phase‑out in the near term.
These realities are colliding with, and reshaping, transition policies across major economies. The consequence is a complex and fluid legal and regulatory environment in which investment signals are blurred, timelines stretched and cross‑border rules increasingly collide.
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